5x5 risk matrix: likelihood x consequence

Free Safety Report

Likelihood ↓ / Consequence →

1Negligible

2Minor

3Moderate

4Significant

5Severe

5Very likely

5moderate

10high

15high

20extreme

25extreme

4Likely

4low

8moderate

12high

16high

20extreme

3Possible

3low

6moderate

9moderate

12high

15high

2Unlikely

2negligible

4low

6moderate

8moderate

10high

1Very unlikely

1negligible

2negligible

3low

4low

5moderate

L	Likelihood	Meaning
1	Very unlikely	Could happen, but nobody has seen it on comparable work.
2	Unlikely	Has happened in the industry. Not expected on this task.
3	Possible	Could happen on this task at some point.
4	Likely	Expected to happen on this task if nothing changes.
5	Very likely	Will probably happen today without controls.

C	Consequence	Meaning
1	Negligible	No injury, or nothing that needs first aid.
2	Minor	First-aid case.
3	Moderate	Medical treatment beyond first aid, or restricted duty.
4	Significant	Lost-time injury or hospitalization.
5	Severe	Fatality or permanent disability.

Score	Level	What to do
20 to 25	Extreme	Stop. Redesign the task before anyone starts.
10 to 16	High	Do not start until added controls bring the score down. Supervisor sign-off required.
5 to 9	Moderate	Proceed only with the listed controls in place. The supervisor confirms them.
3 to 4	Low	Proceed. The crew reviews the controls on the JHA.
1 to 2	Negligible	Proceed with normal supervision.

Score each job step before controls and again after controls. The score after controls decides whether work can start.

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