5x5 Risk Matrix Explained: How to Score Likelihood and Consequence

Read this to the crew

This morning we are going to pick the riskiest step of today's work and score it together. The score comes from two numbers multiplied: how likely it is that someone gets hurt on that step, and how bad the injury would be. I want your numbers, because you are the ones doing the work.

1. Likelihood runs from 1, very unlikely, to 5, very likely. Think about how often this step goes wrong and how many of us will be near it today.
2. Consequence runs from 1 to 5. A 1 needs no first aid, a 2 is first aid, a 3 is medical treatment or restricted duty, a 4 is lost time or a hospital stay, and a 5 is a death or a permanent disability.
3. Pick the injury that would most likely happen if this step went wrong today. Save the 5 for steps where a fall or a crushing injury could kill someone.
4. We score the step once with no controls. Then we score it again counting only the controls that are set up and checked right now, before anyone starts.
5. If the score with controls is 10 or higher, we do not start that step until we add controls and the supervisor signs off. A 20 or a 25 means we stop and plan the task a different way.
6. If you think a number is too low, tell me now. A task we have done for years without an injury can still score high.

Ask the crew

• What is the riskiest step we have today, and what injury would most likely happen if it went wrong?
• How many of us will be exposed on that step, and for how long?
• Which controls for that step are set up right now, and which ones are still on order or not installed?
• What would it take to bring that step's score down into the next lower band?